Monday, August 30, 2010

Sell Signal on 36% Profit Increase Has Analysts in Math Denial

Sell Signal on 36% Profit Increase Has Analysts in Math Denial

By Rita Nazareth and Lynn Thomasson


Aug. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Meyer Shields says earnings at Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. will increase the most since 2006 this year. He’s also telling investors to sell the shares because the economic recovery is weakening.

The Stifel Nicolaus & Co. analyst has plenty of company. For the first time since at least 1997, fewer than 29 percent of ratings for stocks covered by brokerages worldwide are “buys,” according to 159,919 recommendations compiled by Bloomberg. Analysts are turning more pessimistic even as they push up estimates for profit growth among Standard & Poor’s 500 Index companies to 36 percent, the highest since 1988.

“People are sitting on a fence,” said Paul Zemsky, the New York-based head of asset allocation for ING Investment Management, which oversees $550 billion. “When I go and talk to our equity analysts, they look at the companies and say, ‘Boy these companies look pretty good, earnings are OK, they have plenty of cash. What if there’s a double dip?’”
.......  >>>>>>>>>>>

Forex - Weekly Technical Analysis (30.08–5.09)

Forex - Weekly Technical Analysis (30.08–5.09)

EURO


The pair fluctuated near the previously breached pivot support levels at 1.2730, with attempts to stabilize above it. Note that, the last week’s closing level was exactly at these levels, accordingly, preserving our expectations of a downside wave during this week, supported by the rising wedge that limits the pair’s trading, thus we expect a downside move for this week that requires a clear breach of 1.2700.

The trading range for today is among the major support at 1.2400 and the major resistance at 1.2920.

The short term trend is to the downside as far as 1.3770 remains intact with targets at 1.1700.

Support 1.2685 1.2645 1.2600 1.2570 1.2520 

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Resistance 1.2770 1.2840 1.2900 1.2950 1.3000 

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Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is selling the pair with four hour closing below 1.2730 targeting 1.2570 and stop loss above 1.2840 might be appropriate

...................  see more >>>>>>>

Friday, August 27, 2010

MetaTrader History Data Importing and Converting Tutorial for Quality Backtesting

Backtesting MetaTrader expert advisors on historical data is a good way to test a strategy. But testing on the limited data supplied with MT4 installation gives a very poor quality of testing (usually below 50%). So, how to achieve a 90% quality in backtesting of MT4 expert advisors? It’s not that hard really, just follow this simple tutorial and you will able to test any MetaTrader EA.


1. Download a new MetaTrader 4 installation and install it to a separate folder. Be advised that a good MetaTrader historical data take up a lot of disk space, so install it to a drive with at least 1–2 Gbytes of free space. For download MT4 installation I recommend official MetaQuotes site.


2. After you install your MT4, don’t run it yet. Go to the folder you have installed it to. Go the ’history’ folder there and delete all folders there (the actual folders names inside the ’history’ folder may be different from those on these pictures):............ see more here >>>>>>


Red Phoenix System

Red Phoenix FOREX System....Download here

Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Yen Falls From 15-Year High on Speculation Japan Will Intervene

Yen Falls From 15-Year High on Speculation Japan Will Intervene

The yen retreated from a 15-year high versus the dollar on speculation Japanese authorities will act to stem gains that risk derailing the nation’s recovery. 

The yen also fell from the strongest in nine years against the euro after Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda pledged “appropriate action” on the currency and the Nikkei newspaper said the Bank of Japan is considering further monetary easing. The euro rebounded from a six-week low against the dollar after a report showed German business confidence unexpectedly increased to a three-year high in August.....>>>>>>>>

Inside Bar Trading Strategy

Inside Bar Trading Strategy

Inside Bar Forex trading strategy — a popular system with a nice win/loss ratio but a rather rare occurrence of the proper entry conditions. It doesn't require any indicators and can be applied on the bare candlestick or bar chart..........>>>>>>>>

Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Indicator SuperADX

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Sunday, August 22, 2010

Western profits wilt on China's surging wages

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Published: 9:14PM BST 18 Aug 2010

Rising wage and production costs in China are eating into the profits of Western companies and may soon set off an exodus of multinational companies to cheaper locations. 
A report by Credit Suisse said the vast majority of US and European companies in China are expecting a "margin hit" over the next 12 months and fear they will not be able to pass on the costs to consumers, with the biggest worrries in electronics, clothing, and retail. 

The bank said Footlocker, Liz Claiborne, and Office Depot would tip into outright loss in a worst-case scenario, defined as a 20pc rise in costs without any pass-through to customers.

Earnings per share would fall 72pc for Jones Apparel, 50pc for Maidenform Brands and Dollar Tree, 42pc for Macy's, 39pc for Target, and 20pc for Polo Ralph Lauren. Reliance on Chinese plants is suddenly proving double-edged. "We conclude that labour and transportation cost pressures are a major concern for executives that may be under-appreciated by investors," it said. 

The US industrial giant General Electric raised eyebrows in May with plans to shift production of its hybrid water heater from China back to Kentucky next year after securing lower wages from US workers. The company cited the narrowing pay gap, lower transport costs, and shorter delivery times. 

China's manufacturing wages have vaulted from around $1,000 annually 10 years ago, to $3,900 last year. Pay in the industrial hubs of the Pearl River and Yangtze River deltas are much higher and likely to rise further after a wave of industrial disputes at Foxconn, Honda, Toyota, and Omron. 

Bruce Rockowitz, head of the pan-Asian logistics group Li & Fung, said cost pressures are rippling through the region. "It's not just China going up: its everywhere," he said. 

It is unclear whether this will drive up inflation for imported goods in the West, reversing the benign phase of globalisation seen over the last fifteen years, or whether multinationals will adjust to constrained demand in the US, Europe, and Japan by slashing margins, or a mixture of the two. 

Credit Suisse's survey of executives found that 55pc of foreign firms in China could relocate plant to Bangladesh, Vietnam, Indonesia or other low-cost regions relatively easily, though it would be costly. There are winners too, such as Yum Brands poised to reap the harvest from rising Chinese consumption. 

The changing landscape has major implications for Chinese exporters, with an average profit margin of just 3pc. High-tech companies in wind power, solar, and transmission equipment that have recently broken into world markets will face stiffer headwinds. The Shanghai Composite Index of Chinese equities has been lagging all year on fears of a profit squeeze. The bourse is down 20pc since last November. 

The erosion of export margins may explain why Beijing is still dragging its feet on a revaluation of the yuan, despite ever louder calls for retaliatory sanctions in Washington. China's currency has fallen slightly on a trade weighted-basis since the dollar-peg was replaced in May by a crawling band, a clear sign that the authorities are worried that the economy is cooling too fast. Beijing has tried cool the property boom with credit curbs but it is hard to use such tools in a surgical fashion without collateral damage. The growth of factory output ground to a halt in July, on a month-on-month basis. 

China's foreign investment body SAFE has bought record amounts of bonds from Japan, Korea and other Asian countries over the last three months. While this is part of a normal shift away from the US and Europe, it is also a way for Beijing to hold down its currency against these competitors. It is difficult to separate motives in such a policy. 

Higher wages are bringing about the outcome that would have occurred by other means if the currency had been allowed to rise over the years, properly reflecting China's growing trade surplus.

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see more here >>>>